Citing data from the 1995 “Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries” and “Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses,” BLS reports that, based on fatality rates, the long-haul truck driving occupation ranked ninth on the list of America’s most-dangerous occupations. When compared to the general working population, the fatality rate for occupational injuries is five times higher (Toscano 57).

The 10 most dangerous jobs
Occupation Fatalities per 100,000

Timber cutters 117.8
Fishers 71.1
Pilots and navigators 69.8
Structural metal workers 58.2
Drivers-sales workers 37.9
Roofers 37
Electrical power installers 32.5
Farm occupations 28
Construction laborers 27.7
Truck drivers 25

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; survey of occupations with minimum 30 fatalities and 45,000 workers in 2002

Based on Global Insight’s forecast of construction wages, if annual wage increases in long-distance trucking continue at the 5.1% pace recorded in 2004, it would take three years to regain the relative wage position the industry experienced in the 1990s and at least four years to achieve a larger differential that might support attracting an increasing share of the labor force into long-distance trucking. This is unlikely to be an workable time frame for reducing the truck driver shortage. We expect wage growth to accelerate in 2005 and sustain higher rates of growth over the next 2-3 years. The fact that not all segments of the long-haul trucking industry are affected as severely by the shortage should preclude any immediate spike in wages industry-wide. A more likely scenario is that wage growth will average 6-7% per year over the next three years.

These larger wage increases will move over-the-road truck driver wages back to and above the competitive position in the labor market that they held during the 1990s. This wage differential, in combination with continuing efforts on the part of trucking companies to address quality-of-life issues, should be sufficient to reduce the severity of the driver shortage. But because the adverse demographic trends affecting the industry will intensify in the second half of the decade, trucking firms will face a continuing challenge to attract and retain a qualified driver workforce.